$BTC Bottom guessing time: Previously, an anonymous post appeared on the 4chan forum, listing the time spans of Bitcoin's price highs and lows over four cycles since 2015, and accurately predicted Bitcoin's peak on October 6 last year. Because of this, the post was called the "Oracle" post. According to the logic of this "Oracle" post, the bottom of this bear market is on October 4 this year. Of course, this is purely a guess. For example, some experts think the bottom is at 40,000, between October and December; others think it's 44,000 on October 31. Anyway, I think it’s definitely a relative low point now, and I’ve already allocated 70% of my position. And I’m holding mainly BTC, ETH, SOL, these mainstream coins, and of course, also OKB. What do you think? Have you gotten in?

Today's market is so quiet, everyone is waiting for a new direction. I can only share the winning ticket picture, it seems the expected profit is about 200,000

CPI is about to be released, and $BTC is stuck around 63600. There are $442 million long positions buried below 63351 USD, and $267 million short positions pressing above 64605 USD. Who do you think will win the bet? Spot ETFs are not set in stone either: last week, spot BTC ETF net inflows hit $853 million, a new high since April, but BlackRock IBIT accounted for 81%. The day before yesterday, there was a single-day net outflow of $144.6 million, indicating institutions are also waiting for the data. For friends playing short-term, it is recommended not to bet on direction, because even when the data comes out, it could trigger both long and short liquidations; high leverage at this level is just giving away money. For spot, you can wait until after the CPI release to make moves, since the market is currently in the final dip, and there is a lot of money on the sidelines.

$OKB This move was brilliant, a total win. While funds were all watching the CPI data and BTC, ETH were both pulling back, it made a counter-trend rise. The key point is that this is a fundamental change brought by ecosystem benefits, a supported rise: 1. The trigger was last week's news that Circle's native USDC was integrated into X Layer. Previously, X Layer used the cross-chain version of USDC, but now with the liquidity of stablecoins on the public chain filled in, institutional settlement and DeFi infrastructure can truly be used. 2. On the 15th, the burn benefit will arrive, fixing the total token supply at exactly 21 million, and it's estimated that funds have already entered early to position. 3. Of course, it’s also related to its relatively low circulating supply. With this kind of supply, once there is sustained buying, the elasticity is much greater than BTC and ETH. After breaking through the $87 resistance with volume the day before yesterday (24h trading volume +110%), contract funds entered to chase the rise, triggering a wave of short liquidations, which pushed the price up to $95.

$SOL is the only one with separate positive expectations, and its performance these past two days hasn't disappointed me: 1. Although it pulled back a bit while waiting for the CPI, it quickly recovered yesterday, performing better than $BTC and $ETH, showing there is independent buying support at the bottom. 2. Institutional interest in SOL has also returned significantly. Even when other ETFs had net outflows the day before yesterday, SOL's ETF still had net inflows. Especially Bitwise BSOL contributed $8.8 million, positioning ahead of SOL's upgrade next week. 3. Judging by the recent trend, it seems the market is already pricing in the Agave 4.2 upgrade benefits. Hopefully, next week's upgrade won't disappoint and will provide a window for SOL speculation. 4. SGP-0003 has already passed the 15% staking threshold, so SOL's daily burn amount could surge from 650 to around 8,000, which would help curb token inflation. Hopefully, the CPI news will be positive; otherwise, with the overall market down, SOL's price action will be hard to rally independently, wasting these two positive window periods.

Yesterday, I saw some fans asking why everyone is waiting for the CPI and how much it needs to exceed expectations. Let me explain in detail: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures how much the prices of everyday items (rent, food, gasoline, medical care, taxi rides) have increased. Simply put, it is similar to the inflation rate. Tonight at 20:30, this month's data will be released, which will basically determine whether there will be an interest rate hike in September. The current market expectation is "overall CPI up 3.4% year-over-year, core CPI (excluding volatile energy and food prices) up 2.5% year-over-year." If it exceeds this, it means inflation is severe and an interest rate hike is possible, so $BTC will fall; if it is lower, it means inflation is under control, so there will be no rate hike and possibly even a rate cut, and $BTC will rise. But I think the probability of a rate cut is very low. Because the Federal Reserve's target is to control inflation at 2%, but the market expectation is 2.5%, indicating inflation is still relatively high. There is another risk: UBS data shows that short positions on U.S. Treasury bonds have reached a historic high. If the CPI is lower than expected, a bond market rebound may force these short sellers to cover their positions en masse, causing a chain reaction and extreme market volatility. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？

The trend of $ETH is a bit awkward. Originally, because the long-short ratio is higher than BTC and SOL, if the CPI is positive, it could perform stronger than others. But it dropped last night, which probably scared off quite a few people. Because ETH's long-short ratio is 72.3%:27.7%, which is 2.61; higher than BTC's 1.6 and SOL's 2.01, the stampede last night was even more severe. If tomorrow's CPI is negative, it is expected to be another strong stampede. Hopefully, tomorrow will be positive. After all, a wave of leverage has been cleared, which is good for a rebound after the CPI.

Unexpectedly, AI has become a direct competitor to web3... AI has become so popular that even Bitcoin mining companies have stopped mining and switched to leasing to AI companies. Riot Platforms secured a $9.1 billion deal with Anthropic. After the news broke, Riot's stock surged 25% after hours. The lease is for 191 megawatts of power capacity at its Texas mining facility. If Anthropic wants to build a new data center, it would have to wait years in line for power connection. But Bitcoin mining farms already have power connected, and since mining is currently unprofitable, they are eager to find new opportunities. This is the best time to undercut them. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

I've been thinking these past two days: why did the $BTC ETF have a net inflow of $854 million last week, hitting a new high since April, yet the price didn't go up? It even turned into a net outflow yesterday. What exactly are institutions doing? Just now while driving, I suddenly thought, could it be that last week's inflow was users relocating due to the Coldcard incident? That would also explain why 80% of the funds flowed in from IBIT. If that's really the case, it means my judgment last week was wrong; maybe institutions are already taking profits now, which fits with my feeling that there's still a big downtrend ahead. The more I think about it, the more it seems to be true. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？