#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Xiaomi is finally coming. Today at 15:45 (UTC+8), OKX officially launches the XIAOMI/USDT stock perpetual contract. Also launching together are Pop Mart (15:30), RIOT (16:15), and NET (16:30). The contract is settled in $USDT, with funding fees settled every 8 hours. Bitget launched Xiaomi's perpetual contract last month, and now OKX is following suit. The penetration speed of Hong Kong stock targets in the crypto world is indeed accelerating. Previously, $SNDK Sandisk grid trading performed well. Hong Kong stock targets like Xiaomi, which have relatively high volatility, are naturally suitable for grid trading to capture volatility. Xiaomi's business spans smartphones, IoT, and smart cars, and its earnings reports often cause significant fluctuations—grid trading thrives in such markets. But let's first observe liquidity after launch before taking action; no rush to jump in. OKX has already launched many tokenized US and Hong Kong stocks, from Nvidia to Samsung to Xiaomi. The speed of traditional assets going on-chain is faster than expected. In the future, within the same account, you can buy $BTC, NVDA, and Xiaomi with USDT. Asset classes are merging, and this may be one of the biggest trends in the coming years.

#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $SNDK SanDisk has broken through 1318, and the market is clearly much stronger. It has bounced all the way up from 1190, and this rebound is more solid than expected. Several factors are pushing it up together: First, market sentiment warmed before the CPI, and after the non-farm payrolls, expectations for rate hikes cooled down, risk appetite increased, and SanDisk followed the broader market rebound. Second, with the investor day on August 13 approaching, the market expects substantial content regarding the HBF roadmap and BiCS10 commercialization timeline, and more funds are willing to hold positions in advance for this news. Third, technically, the previous support at 1160 was not broken, and after multiple confirmations between 1190-1200, the price chose to move upward, indicating there is indeed buying interest at this level. Now it has reached a critical position. The 1300-1318 range is both the daily moving average resistance level and the high point area of the previous rebound after a decline. If it can close and hold above 1318 today, the next target might be 1350-1370. If it rallies but then falls back to retest 1300, it may continue to fluctuate between 1200-1300. There is indeed a risk of pullback. The RSI is above 78, showing some short-term overbought signs. Plus, with the CPI data coming out tonight, if the data exceeds expectations, market sentiment might reverse, and the price will likely be pushed back down to the 1250-1280 range. This is currently the biggest uncertainty. My position: The grid is still running, with a profit of +18.69U, grid profit of 39U, and unmatched loss narrowed to 20U. The price is 1316, nearly 100 points above the lower boundary of the range at 1219. As long as the CPI tonight doesn't explode, the grid will most likely continue to rotate. If the CPI is dovish, the price will continue to rise, and profits will keep expanding. If the CPI is hawkish, the price will fall back but not break the lower boundary, and the grid can still continue to hold. The ones rushing to chase highs are not me. At 1318, I choose to hold the grid steady. I'll wait until both the CPI and investor day events have landed. What should rise won't be missed just because I don't chase, and what should fall won't be stopped just because I hold on stubbornly.

#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Tonight at 8:30 PM, the CPI data will be released. The rate hike expectations are currently split 50-50 — CME FedWatch shows a 52% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September and a 48% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The market expects the overall CPI annual rate to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI annual rate to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. Core CPI is the real decisive factor Expected month-over-month is 0.2%, annual rate 2.5%. The Cleveland Fed Nowcasting model shows July core CPI rising 0.21% month-over-month. If the actual data is close to 0.2%, it basically meets expectations, and the market may not fluctuate much. But if it exceeds 0.25%, the probability of a September rate hike will likely jump back above 60%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hawkish before CPI release said, "Inflation is the biggest current problem." Both Fed hawks and doves are waiting for this data; who wins or loses depends entirely on the numbers. Three possibilities Core CPI meets expectations (0.2% month-over-month, 2.5% year-over-year): September rate hike probability stays around 50%, BTC short-term oscillates between 63,000-65,000. Sandisk grid continues running its volatility. Core CPI below expectations (0.1% or lower): September rate hike probability may drop to 30%-40%, $BTC has a chance to break through 65,000 and even challenge 66,000. $XAU gold may break 4420 and continue upward. Core CPI above expectations (0.3% or higher): September rate hike probability may jump directly above 70%, BTC may retest 62,000 or even 61,000. Gold faces short-term pressure. My position $SNDK Sandisk grid has been running for 7 and a half days, arbitraged 3,439 times, grid profit 39U, unpaired loss narrowed to -29U, total profit +9.79U. Price near 1290, lower bound 1219, upper bound 1490, space sufficient. Regardless of CPI data quality, as long as the price fluctuates within the range, the grid will keep running. The only caution is a large data surprise causing the price to break below the lower bound, but with a forced liquidation price at 919, there is still over 300 points of buffer, so no need to panic for now.

#EarningsObserver: AI Infrastructure Earnings Reports Take the Stage The validation logic for the AI infrastructure earnings season is straightforward: optical modules, compute cloud, and equipment manufacturers are all testing the same question—whether AI investments have truly turned into real revenue. CoreWeave: Revenue Doubled, Backlog at $104 Billion Shares rose 9% after hours. Q2 revenue was $2.58 billion, up 112% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations. Net loss was $626 million, but significantly less than the expected $757 million loss. The most striking figure is the backlog—$104 billion, with core clients including OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft. $CRWV CoreWeave’s results indicate one thing: demand for AI compute leasing is still booming; losses are due to rapid expansion, not weak demand. Lumentum: Optical Module Demand Exploded, But Only Up 1.8% After Hours Q4 revenue was $1.01 billion, doubling year-over-year, EPS $3.23, beating expectations by $0.28. Tied to Google TPU and Nvidia GPU supply chains, AI optical module demand is indeed materializing. However, shares only rose 1.8% after hours—optical modules went up, but the market wasn’t particularly excited, possibly feeling expectations were already priced in. Coherent and AMAT Reports Coming Tonight and Tomorrow Night Coherent will release Q4 earnings after market close tonight (August 12), with expected revenue of $1.98 billion, up 30% year-over-year, EPS $1.21. It is a core supplier for AI optical interconnects, validating whether "optical communication is truly accelerating." Applied Materials (AMAT) will report Q3 earnings after market close Thursday (August 13), with expected revenue of $9 billion, up 23% year-over-year, EPS $3.36. As a semiconductor equipment leader, it validates whether "chipmakers are still expanding production." $SPCX SpaceX Second Wave of Unlocking on August 20 The first batch of unlocking on August 6 didn’t crash the stock; the price even returned to the IPO level. But on August 20, another 319 million shares (about 7%) will unlock, with about 700 million shares unlocking in September and nearly 700 million in October. The supply is still being released. $SNDK SanDisk Investor Day on Thursday (August 13) HBF roadmap and BiCS10 commercialization timeline. SanDisk’s grid trading ran for 7 days, arbitraging 3,423 times, with a profit of +4.9U [user screenshot]. I don’t need to guess the direction; as long as the price oscillates within the range, the grid will keep running. Tonight’s Coherent and tomorrow night’s AMAT data, combined with Thursday’s SanDisk investor day—these three events together will decide whether the AI infrastructure narrative continues to tell stories or starts to do the math.

#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $SNDK SanDisk grid floating profit has turned positive. Nearly 3,300 arbitrage trades were executed in 7 days, averaging 470 per day, with grid earnings of 37U, paired loss narrowed to 31U, total profit +5.92U. Previously lost over 30 points but held on hard, now starting to make money. $SPCX The unlock wave did not crash the stock price, which has risen back above the IPO price. But the next batch of 319 million shares unlocking on August 20 is already on the way, and there are 700 million shares in September. Shorts haven't fully exited; currently more than 250 million shares are still shorted. The fundamental direction hasn't changed, I continue holding the grid waiting for the August 13 investor day. SanDisk's fundamentals haven't collapsed, Citibank's 2500 target price remains, and the long-term storage logic is still intact. As long as the forced liquidation price isn't broken, I will hold steady. This week AI infrastructure earnings reports are intensive; data from optical modules, computing power cloud, and equipment manufacturers will verify whether AI capital expenditure is accelerating or slowing down. SanDisk grid closed at 1279 tonight, with an upper range of 1490 and lower range of 1219, enough room to run. Now grid earnings can cover the floating loss of the base position, making the holding mentality much steadier. Continue letting the grid run itself, waiting for what cards SanDisk can play on the 13th investor day.

#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $DOS really had a strong move today. It surged directly from 0.324 to 0.535, up 33 points, and is now pulling back near 0.52. The 24-hour trading volume is 127 million, which is quite substantial. For a new coin on its first day, this performance shows the sentiment is definitely in place. The background of this coin is actually quite interesting. DAPPOS is a Web3 AI operating system, with its core product called xBubble — you give it a simple prompt, and it automatically helps you generate documents, slides, websites, videos, and such. Essentially, it’s "doing Web3 tasks through chat," which lowers the entry barrier significantly. DOS is its ecosystem token. The funding background is not weak. In March 2024, it completed a $15.3 million Series A round led by Polychain, with a valuation of $300 million. In July 2023, there was also a $5 million seed round with investments from Sequoia China, IDG, and OKX Ventures. Altogether, it has raised over $20 million, and the shareholder list is quite strong. Why the surge today? On August 10, DOS was listed on several exchanges simultaneously — Gate launched spot trading first, Binance Alpha went live, and OKX also listed perpetual contracts. Bitget and BingX followed suit. Within one day, it was listed on five or six platforms, instantly unlocking liquidity. The premium effect typical of new coin launches naturally kicked in. OKX’s contract opened at 20:00 today, priced in USDT, with up to 20x leverage. Total supply is 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulation of 200 million. In the token allocation, the team and investors together hold 42.5%, all with a 12-month lock-up period. Short-term selling pressure is actually not large, with no major unlocks expected in the coming months. What exactly is driving this surge? The Web3 AI narrative has been quite hot recently, combined with listings on five or six exchanges in one day, liquidity premium and narrative premium stacked together, resulting in this market performance. From 0.324 to 0.535, a 65% increase before pulling back — this rise has basically priced in both the "listing expectations" and the "AI narrative" at once. What’s next depends on whether the product can truly be realized. No matter how strong the narrative is, it still needs actual users and revenue to support it. But at least today’s move was quite decisive, with good volume to match. My grid orders are still running. $SNDK on the SanDisk side averages over 500 arbitrage trades daily, and profits are slowly coming back. For a newly launched coin like DOS, volatility is indeed high, but I’m not very familiar with this project, so I’m just watching for now, not rushing to act. If there’s a pullback later, I might consider trying a small position. For now, I’ll let the grid run itself; no need to rush.

#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ $XAU Gold has been quite strong in this move. Before the non-farm payrolls, it traded between 3900 and 4100 for a full two months, unable to break up or down. Once the non-farm data came out showing a decrease of 23,000 jobs and cooling rate hike expectations, gold surged through 4100 with a strong bullish candle, now pushing above 4400, reaching a high of 4421 today, up nearly 8% in this rally. Honestly, the core logic for gold holding at this level is the easing of rate hike expectations. Both ADP and non-farm data were weak, and the market started repricing the likelihood of a September rate hike, with CME's no-rate-hike probability rising to 55%. The dollar weakened, U.S. Treasury yields turned down, and naturally, gold went up. But I’m a bit hesitant about the 4400 level. It jumped straight from 4100 to 4400 with almost no decent pullback, and the RSI is already above 73, entering the short-term overbought zone. Chasing in at this level has a poor risk-reward ratio. I think the short-term peak is likely near 4400, and a pullback is expected next, targeting around 4170. If gold can retrace to that level, digest the overbought signals, and confirm the validity of the 4100 breakout, I will enter a long position near 4170. After all, the long-term logic for gold hasn’t changed: geopolitical risks remain, and the Fed will eventually pivot, it’s just a matter of timing. During this period, $SNDK SanDisk’s grid has been running continuously with sufficient volatility, averaging over 500 arbitrage trades daily. If gold really gives a pullback opportunity to 4170, I will shift part of my position there. It’s not that I’m bearish on gold, I just want to find a better entry point. No rush to chase, waiting for it to come down on its own.

#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The CPI will be released on Wednesday night (August 12). The market expects the overall CPI annual rate to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI annual rate to decrease from 2.6% to 2.5%. The probability of a rate hike in September has already fallen significantly. After the non-farm payrolls data came out, CME FedWatch shows the probability of maintaining the current rate in September has risen to 55.6%, while the probability of a rate hike dropped to 44.4%. Polymarket leans more towards no rate hike, with a 63% chance of holding steady, and Kalshi shows 65%. A week ago, CME's rate hike expectation was still 67%, but it dropped immediately after the non-farm data was released. Interestingly, although market expectations are changing, institutional views are still divided. Bank of America insists on a September rate hike, arguing that the Fed will focus more on inflation data rather than employment data. Citibank says if CPI softens for a second consecutive month, a September rate hike is basically off the table. The Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting model shows July core CPI is expected to rise 0.21% month-over-month and 2.52% year-over-year, rebounding compared to June's flat month-over-month data. The subtlety here is that 0.21% is not high, but it is a rebound from June's 0%. Hawks will say "inflation is accelerating again," while doves will say "it's still below the average level of the past 12 months." So if Wednesday's data is below expectations, the probability of a September rate hike may continue to decline, and risk assets might get a short-term breather. If the data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations could bounce back, and the market may need to reprice again. My $SNDK SanDisk grid is still running; it dropped to 1197 pre-market but bounced back. The CPI variable is a source of volatility for me. Good data or bad data is fine, as long as the price oscillates within the range, the grid can keep capturing profits. Tomorrow night, we'll see how the market reacts to the data. $BTC

#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SNDK SanDisk is stronger in this wave than I expected; it bounced at 1191 without reaching 1160. Now it’s back to 1255, the grid is running again, and the floating loss has shrunk from -30U to -8U. Most likely, it will fluctuate between 1200-1300 next, then wait for the Investor Day on August 13. This range is perfect for the grid: sellers at the upper edge, buyers at the lower edge, and free movement in between. My grid has recovered, averaging over 500 arbitrage trades daily. As long as the price stays within the range, profits will gradually return. Investor Day is the first real catalyst after this SanDisk pullback. The HBF roadmap and BiCS10 commercialization schedule are the core variables that will determine if SanDisk can turn this oversold rebound into a trend reversal. If the market sees a clear technical path and commercialization timeline, SanDisk’s valuation logic might be repriced. At this stage, watch more and act less. Let the grid run itself and wait to see what cards SanDisk plays on August 13. Next week might be when SanDisk starts telling its story again.

#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 $SNDK SanDisk has already dropped to 1197 pre-market, with a low touching 1191. 1160 is the support level tonight; if it can hold until the August 13 investor day, it could surge upward. From the candlestick chart, SanDisk has fallen from 1391, but every time it reaches around 1190-1200, there is support. Last time, the low was 1186 and it bounced back. If it can hold above 1160 this time, it would indeed signal short-term stabilization. Technical indicators also support this view. MACD and moving averages are starting to converge, indicating weakening downward momentum and the market is waiting for new catalysts. RSI is in the forties, neither oversold nor overbought. Coupled with potential positive news from next week's investor day, bears may lack the motivation to continue pushing the price down at this level. However, the key is still the plan on August 13. The HBF roadmap and BiCS10 commercialization schedule are the core variables determining whether SanDisk can shift from an "oversold rebound" to a "trend reversal." If a clear technical roadmap and commercialization path are provided that day, the market may reprice. If it remains vague, SanDisk might have to consolidate around 1200 for a while longer. My grid orders are still running; the price has now returned above 1219, so the strategy should have resumed. The liquidation price is 930, which is still over 260 points away, so no need to panic for now. If 1160 can hold, the grid can continue to arbitrage.