
匿光|Arcana
5年加密货币交易经验,长期持有OKB BTC,单币A7持有者,meme黑马猎手,区块链上信息搜寻者,对该行业长期看好,未来依旧是普通人最好的翻身机会。
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Strategy (MSTR) sold 1,690 BTC to build a cash buffer, CEO says "Bitcoin alone" is not enough
Strategy reported selling 1,690 BTC (about $109 million) on August 10, reducing its holdings to 840,449 BTC. Meanwhile, CEO Phong Le stated that the company currently holds $4.75 billion in cash reserves and is shifting towards a broader "digital credit" business model, including preferred stock products similar to STRC.
This marks Strategy's move from pure Bitcoin accumulation to diversification, which may reduce its future marginal buying pressure on Bitcoin!
It's the same in any financial market: without profit incentives, funds will either withdraw or reduce investment. The bear market is indeed tough and requires patience to wait it out!

Bitcoin bottoming out in October? This legendary post predicted accurately last time, but can it be trusted again... Since peaking last October, it has been stagnant for 10 months, and faith is almost worn out. However, the community has dug up that anonymous legendary post again, saying the bottom will be in October — the problem is, just because it was accurate last time doesn't mean it will be this time; the market specializes in disproving fixed ideas.
Good news has completely turned into a black swan: a 14% chance of passing, why should I pay for you?
The bill has been postponed. No vote in August, earliest on September 15.
On Polymarket, the passing probability dropped from 70% to 14%, TD Cowen directly said there's a 75% chance it won't pass.
What's even more painful is the data—In May, XRP ETF still had a net inflow of 130 million, but by July it was only 27 million, down 79%. Money is fleeing faster than anyone else.
Think about it—
Where exactly is this bill stuck?
The Democrats are holding onto the official stock ownership restrictions. The plan is: if holdings exceed 1 million or 10%, you have to sell. Sounds reasonable? But the enforcement power is entirely given to the Department of Justice, which means "insiders investigating insiders." Who would accept these conditions?
Even harsher, even if it gets 60 votes to pass, there are still a bunch of amendments waiting. The time window after the September reconvening is pitifully short, and once the election season comes, the bill will be cannon fodder.
Back to the market moves—
BTC: 64,000 has been lost. The good news is gone, and CPI data still looms overhead. Institutions are buying gold as a safe haven; in the first week of August, GLD saw an inflow of 1.4 billion USD. Cryptocurrency? Figure it out yourself.
Gold: has already surged to a 9-week high of 4435.
Time for a soul-searching question—
A "good news" with only a 14% chance of passing, and the coin has already dropped 25%, is betting on it worth the numbers in your account? Is a bullshit phrase like "regulation is coming" really worth that much real money premium?
What the market faces now is not the expectation of legislation passing, but the chain reaction of expectations falling short. A 14% chance, and you want to go long on BTC based on this?
Is Trump's company planning to abandon the cryptocurrency business?
If that's really the case, everyone will be happy.
One of the main reasons the "CLRITY Act" has been delayed is the clause that prohibits the president and government officials from issuing and endorsing cryptocurrencies.
If Trump gives up the cryptocurrency business,
this sticking point will no longer exist.
If he doesn't engage in it himself, he certainly won't let others do it either.
Furthermore, for the already issued $TRUMP and $WLFI,
this is basically a definitive shorting opportunity.
These two coins have existed from the start for the purpose of harvesting profits.
Taking a big harvest before the bill passes
fits Trump's style very well.
Views on the primary market meme
When you buy into a natural traffic project, you complain there are too many retail investors and the market lacks strength, hoping for big players to enter.
When you buy into a big player’s project, you say the conspiracy is too deep and that a harvest is inevitable.
When it falls, you blame the project team for not supporting the price; when it rises, you criticize it for pumping too fast and not giving you a chance to get in.
When it’s sideways, you complain about the lack of heat; after a sudden surge, you say the chips are unhealthy.
What you want has never been a good project, but one that rises right after you buy and falls right after you sell, a market that cooperates with you to make money.
The market is not targeting you; it’s just that your greed does not match your understanding.
Tokenized RWA deposits in DeFi increased year-on-year to $7.4 billion, tripling in growth
A report by CoinShares/Token Terminal found that over the past year, tokenized real-world asset deposits in DeFi lending and DEXs grew from $2.3 billion to $7.4 billion.
BlackRock launched two new tokenized money market funds, and Wells Fargo also announced it will offer tokenized deposits to corporate clients this fall.
This marks an acceleration in institutional on-chain adoption and could support the long-term growth of DeFi TVL.

According to the historical trend of the US midterm elections, reviewing the years of the last three US midterm elections, Bitcoin has fallen in August every time, with an average decline of over 13%.
Looking at the historical trends, the median return in August is -7%, making it the worst and most prone to decline month of the entire year.
Based on this historical pattern and estimating a 13% decline, Bitcoin's price will be around $58,500. $BTC
Key points: Some thoughts on this altcoin season:
Playing this altcoin cycle with the logic of the last altcoin cycle will inevitably lead to a mental breakdown.
What everyone thinks about the altcoin season:
1. Like the last cycle, all coins rise, whether new or old coins.
2. The increase matches the last cycle's rise; only then is it called a rise, only then is it called an altcoin season.
In fact, many altcoin sectors in this bull market are already relatively large. If you haven't made money, it's because:
1. You missed the rhythm and missed the explosive sectors.
2. You entered late, with a high cost basis.
For example, if you bought wld at 9u or ordi at 70u and call them trash, saying there's no altcoin season, look at how much they've risen from the bottom to the highest point. Why didn't you buy earlier?
The two altcoins above belong to the local hotspot altcoin season.
Those holding onto old coins shouldn't fantasize that all old coins will reach or even break their previous highs; not every coin is inj.
Most old coins have already exited the historical stage, but in the final phase of the bull market, they will still have a spike to show respect to the bull market.

