
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Continuing from the previous discussion on AI, let's look at it from another angle. Tonight, LG Electronics officially announced joining NVIDIA's AI data center cooling official partner program—note the keyword is "cooling." When an industry starts pouring money specifically into "how to cool machines" and pulls the entire supply chain along, it means capex is still skyrocketing with no sign of slowing down. This is a double-edged sword for liquidity assets like $BTC: all the money is being absorbed by AI infrastructure, leaving less marginal incremental funds for risk assets. The excitement belongs to NVIDIA, but you need to stay calm. Don't get itchy just because the neighboring sector is taking off.
Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching the market. Here's a big news tonight that might be easily overlooked: OpenAI and Anthropic are working with security researchers to investigate tens of thousands of AI-related security incidents, and OpenAI has even announced a pause on training its most powerful model. The market is currently pricing AI as a perpetual motion machine, but even the engine makers are starting to hit the brakes. This isn't telling you to short $ETH or tech stocks tonight, but rather a reminder: when a narrative rises to the point where "no one worries about risks anymore," that's often when the risks are greatest. The fear and greed index is stuck at 75 in the greed zone, combined with this news, it's worth taking a closer look.
Friday wrap-up, let me share something I did right this week: I resisted messing around in a low-volume, grinding market. $BTC hovered around 84,000 all week, with volume ratios across all timeframes flat on the floor. This kind of market easily wears people down into repeatedly opening and closing positions, feeding all the fees to the exchange. I basically stayed flat on perpetuals this week, keeping my base position in spot, letting it move sideways. It's like playing cards—the best move with a bad hand is to fold and wait for the next, not to force a bluff. Liquidity is even thinner on weekends, so I definitely won’t catch a falling knife. How about you this week—were you trading, or just struggling against the market?
Many people have been mentally unsettled by the intraday sideways movement these past two days: $BTC is grinding back and forth around 84,000, sometimes calling a bottom, sometimes calling a top. I'll give you a simple but useful method—extend the timeframe.
The daily and four-hour charts look like a stagnant pool, but if you zoom out to the weekly or monthly charts, you'll see it's just a narrow oscillation within a large range, neither breaking down nor firmly breaking up. Struggling over direction at this point is essentially trying to find signals in noise, which is a thankless effort.
My approach is simple: until the higher timeframe gives a clear signal, keep perpetual futures empty and only hold a base spot position. Don't let every intraday candlestick control your emotions—that's the core reason retail traders get repeatedly harvested.
Let's talk about a topic unrelated to the market this weekend but even more valuable: how traders should spend their weekends.
I've seen too many people who lose money during the workweek but then can't sleep on weekends, itching to watch the thin liquidity market and wanting to "make up for the losses of the week." This is the classic case of being emotionally overwhelmed. There's a saying at the card table: once you lose a hand, move on; don't carry the emotions into the next hand.
On weekends, I basically do only one thing—review my trades. Separate which trades last week were disciplined and which were impulsive. Whether the direction was right is a mix of luck and judgment, but whether you followed the rules when entering is entirely under your control. Manage the latter well, and you'll naturally win in the long run. Don't rush to place orders or rush to get stronger on weekends.
Trump personally posted today, saying the U.S. economy is the "best in history," with record-high incomes and record-low poverty rates, while also urging everyone to vote Republican in the midterm elections. I don't touch politics, just sharing one experience from the poker table: the more your opponent is eager to tell you how strong their hand is and actively shows you their good cards, the more cautious you should be. True strength doesn't need to shout.
The same applies to $BTC—when everyone's sentiment is maxed out on "everything is great," but the price is stuck at a high level, this divergence is when I am most cautious. I am keeping my perpetual position empty over the weekend, not because I have no view, but because I don't want to catch the bag for others when sentiment is at its fullest and liquidity is thinnest.
The most dangerous thing on the weekend isn't the market, it's boredom. $BTC has been stuck around 84,000 for several days, volume ratios across all timeframes are flat on the floor, a stagnant pool. In this kind of market, the most common mistake retail traders make is itchy hands—they have no good cards but insist on playing, adding leverage to find some thrill, only to get taken out by a sudden spike.
After playing cards for a long time, you'll understand that folding is also a move, and often the one with the highest winning probability. I'm keeping my perpetual position empty over the weekend, not because I have no view, but because this hand isn't worth betting on. Real big money waits for the right moment; it’s not made by grinding through choppy markets.
Are you waiting for your cards now, or are you just creating trades for yourself?
Don't just focus on the price when watching the market; also take a glance at the "temperature" of derivatives. Currently, $BTC's funding rates and open interest are quite moderate, with no signs of extreme crowding—rates aren't deeply negative nor soaring positive, and liquidations aren't clustered on one side.
In plain language: big players are on the sidelines, and the market isn't giving you any clear one-sided edge. This is the most frustrating time because you can't catch the fuel for a short squeeze nor wait for a bullish stampede gap.
But frustration doesn't mean you should act. The most valuable skill for a player is not to fire every hand but to hold back from betting in bad spots. Without extremes, there are no edges; when there are no edges, staying out of the market is itself a position.
Here's a counterintuitive take. The Wall Street Fear & Greed Index is hanging at 75 today, solidly in the "Greed" zone, yet the $BTC price has been stuck around 84,000 for several days.
The sentiment is hot, but the price is cold. This divergence carries more information than just looking at the price alone. It tells you that the optimism in the market is already overextended in sentiment, but no one is willing to put real money in to push the price up. Greed peaking and price stagnation often signal momentum exhaustion rather than the start of a rally.
The most common mistake retail investors make is to interpret "everyone is bullish" as "time to chase the rally." On the contrary, when sentiment indicators and price start to diverge, what you should do is step back and observe, not join the hype.
These past two days, $SOL has been the strongest card on the table, showing a full bullish alignment across four cycles, leading the gains again in the last 24 hours. The comment section is already shouting "catching up, chasing a bit."
I pour cold water: the strongest target is often the last place to be left holding the bag. The daily RSI has already reached near overbought levels. For a variety that’s leading the way and close to overbought, if you chase in now, you’re making money on the last, steepest segment, which is also the easiest to be counterattacked.
Anyone who plays cards knows: when the cards look best, that’s exactly when you have to ask yourself—am I holding the nuts, or am I feeding others their winning hand? Strength doesn’t equal safety, and following the trend still requires picking the right spots.